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The Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery Merger: An Antitrust Case for Rejection

4/14/2026

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I. IntroductionIn February 2026, Paramount Global signed a $110 billion agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, setting the stage for one of the largest media combinations in recent memory.1 The transaction, engineered by David Ellison’s Paramount Skydance and valued at approximately $111 billion, would consolidate two of the six remaining major Hollywood studios into a single corporate entity — leaving the United States with just four major film studios for the first time in the modern era of cinema. The deal is currently under review by the Antitrust Division of the United States Department of Justice, the California Attorney General’s Office, the European Commission, and the United Kingdom’s Competition and Markets Authority.
The proponents of this transaction argue that it will strengthen Hollywood against the dominance of streaming platforms like Netflix, generate efficiencies, and preserve iconic studio brands. These arguments do not withstand legal or economic scrutiny. Analyzed under applicable antitrust principles — including Section 7 of the Clayton Act, the Sherman Act’s prohibition on unreasonable restraints of trade, and established doctrines governing monopsony harm and labor market concentration — this merger presents serious, potentially dispositive competition concerns. Antitrust regulators at both the federal and state level should reject it, or at minimum condition its approval on remedies sufficiently structural to restore meaningful competition to the markets it would harm.
II. The Procedural Posture and Its AnomaliesBefore analyzing the substantive antitrust issues, the procedural history of this transaction raises its own concerns about the integrity of the regulatory process.
Under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976 (HSR Act), parties to a transaction of this magnitude are required to notify the DOJ and allow a waiting period — typically 30 days, subject to extension — during which the government may investigate and, if warranted, seek to enjoin the transaction. Paramount’s regulatory efforts are being led by Makan Delrahim, its chief legal officer and the former Assistant Attorney General who oversaw the DOJ’s Antitrust Division during the first Trump administration.2 In a maneuver described by antitrust experts as “unusual but legal,” Paramount filed its pre-merger HSR notification before signing a merger agreement with Warner Bros. Discovery — expediting the submission in a way that gives the DOJ less time to sue to block the deal before the transaction is legally allowed to close.3
 As Lee Hepner, senior legal counsel at the American Economic Liberties Project, noted: “It is unusual and remarkably creative and clever to try to complete your merger review with the federal government before you’ve even secured a deal. He’s really shortened the window for a challenge after the merger is approved.”4 The DOJ’s own review policy acknowledges that the expiration of the HSR waiting period does not foreclose subsequent challenge: according to that policy, “the Division will not consider arguments by the parties that the Division is estopped from later raising issues that were not discussed with the parties earlier in the process.” The expiration of the statutory waiting period means there is no current statutory impediment under U.S. law to closing the transaction, but the DOJ has the latitude to challenge a merger even after the HSR waiting period expiration.5
The broader concern raised by Delrahim’s role deserves candid acknowledgment. His position as the architect of federal merger review during the first Trump term, and his subsequent move to lead Paramount’s regulatory strategy in the second, presents at minimum the appearance of a revolving-door conflict that should prompt heightened scrutiny from both regulators and the public.
III. The Clayton Act Section 7 Analysis: Substantial Lessening of CompetitionSection 7 of the Clayton Act prohibits acquisitions whose effect “may be substantially to lessen competition, or to tend to create a monopoly” in any line of commerce or in any section of the country. The operative standard is one of reasonable probability — not certainty — and courts have consistently held that proof of actual harm is not required; a showing of likely anticompetitive effects in a properly defined relevant market suffices.
The relevant markets in this transaction are multiple and overlapping: the market for theatrical film distribution; the market for the licensing and sale of filmed content to streaming platforms; the labor market for writers, directors, producers, and below-the-line crew; the market for cable and broadcast television programming; and the broader market for premium video entertainment content.
Merger review in consolidating industries increasingly centers on how a deal reshapes competitive structure, not merely on whether it creates dominance in a narrowly defined market. In industries characterized by high fixed costs and a limited number of significant competitors, regulators are likely to scrutinize how consolidation affects long-term rivalry and competitive incentives.6
Those conditions are precisely present here. The Hollywood studio system is, by any measure, a highly concentrated oligopoly. Recall that MGM was acquired by Amazon. The acquisition of 20th Century Fox by The Walt Disney Company in 2019 reduced the major studios from six to five. The present transaction would reduce that number to four.7 Under the DOJ and FTC’s Horizontal Merger Guidelines, markets with a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) above 2,500 are considered highly concentrated, and mergers that increase the HHI by more than 200 points in a highly concentrated market are presumptively anticompetitive. The major studio theatrical distribution market, already an oligopoly of five, almost certainly satisfies both prongs of that structural presumption upon the elimination of a sixth independent competitor.
Proponents will argue that the combined entity’s market share in total television viewing remains below the threshold that triggers structural antitrust concern. A combined Paramount-WBD entity would control approximately 22% of the market — well below the threshold that triggers the structural presumption of illegality, and regulators would face a substantially higher burden to demonstrate competitive harm.8 This argument, however, defines the relevant market at its broadest possible scope — encompassing YouTube, Peacock, free over-the-air broadcasting, and every other video platform — in order to dilute the competitive significance of the merger. A better market definition analysis would focus on the meaningful competitive constraints among major studio content producers, not on the universe of all video content. Courts applying the “hypothetical monopolist” would likely conclude that the relevant markets are substantially narrower and more concentrated than the proponents’ figures suggest.
IV. Harm to Creators and the Labor MarketA dimension of competitive harm that has historically received insufficient attention in media merger review, but which is squarely implicated here, is the anticompetitive effect on the seller side of the market for creative labor and content rights.
A central concern in the DOJ’s review is whether the merger would limit the number of buyers for films and shows.9 This is not a marginal concern. Independent filmmakers, screenwriters, directors, documentary producers, and below-the-line professionals sell their labor and their creative works into a market defined by the number of major studios willing to develop, finance, and distribute projects. Every reduction in the number of major buyers — every studio that disappears into a merged entity — reduces the competitive pressure that drives compensation, greenlight rates, and the diversity of content that gets made.
The Writers Guild of America has articulated this concern stating that “the proposed Paramount-Warner merger would consolidate control of two major film and television studios and streaming services, and two of the largest employers of writers,” and that “the loss of competition would be a disaster for writers, consumers and the entire entertainment industry.”10
The Writers Guild of America West president Michele Mulroney has been equally direct, warning that “the resulting media behemoth would have tremendous leverage to reduce the diversity and volume of programming and raise prices for consumers, while suppressing writer compensation and worsening working conditions across the industry.”11
These concerns extend beyond writers. The Teamsters union has expressed concern that the proposed merger “poses a direct threat” to employment and urged the DOJ to block the deal unless enforceable safeguards are put in place.12 Cinema United, representing theater owners, has noted that studio consolidation has historically led to the production of fewer movies, and that “at this juncture, there is no reason to believe the outcome here will be any different.”13
More than a thousand members of the creative community registered their opposition in a public letter published April 13, 2026. The signatories, including over 75 Academy Award winners and nominees, include celebrated filmmakers Denis Villeneuve, Yorgos Lanthimos, and David Fincher, actors Joaquin Phoenix, Jane Fonda, Bryan Cranston, and Kristen Stewart, and writers including The Sopranos creator David Chase.14 Their letter is a sober reckoning with the damage that prior consolidation has already done: “Media consolidation has accelerated the disappearance of the mid-budget film, the erosion of independent distribution, the collapse of the international sales market, the elimination of meaningful profit participation, and the weakening of screen credit integrity.”15
V. Coordinated Effects and Financial Stability ConcernsBeyond the horizontal structural analysis, the merger raises significant coordinated effects concerns. When four firms control the overwhelming majority of studio-level film production and distribution, the conditions for tacit or explicit coordination are substantially enhanced. The fewer the competitors, the easier it is for each to observe and anticipate the others’ pricing, output, and licensing decisions — a dynamic the Merger Guidelines treat as independently anticompetitive.
Compounding the structural concern is a financial one that has received inadequate attention in the antitrust analysis. Film financier Joseph Singer, a 30-year veteran of the industry, has argued in detail that the merger’s debt structure is not merely aggressive but financially unsustainable. The combined new business’s debt load will equal over 200% of its post-merger equity market capitalization of approximately $35 billion. Paramount stock has dropped one-third since February 27, 2026. The highly leveraged structure proposed by Paramount would make the combined companies one of the most leveraged media entities in history and among the most leveraged companies in the world today.16
This financial fragility is directly relevant to the antitrust analysis. A severely over-leveraged combined entity will, as a matter of financial necessity, reduce content spending, accelerate layoffs, and retreat from the kind of risk-taking that produces diverse, independent-minded filmmaking. The “synergies” Paramount has projected — estimated at $6 billion — are, as Reuters reported, “often code for massive layoffs.”17 These are not efficiencies that benefit consumers or creators; they are cost extractions that further shrink a labor market already under severe strain.
VI. State Enforcement and the Regulatory LandscapeThe federal government’s posture toward this transaction has been troubling. Paramount’s chief legal officer used his intimate knowledge of DOJ merger review procedures to engineer an HSR filing and waiting period expiration before a merger agreement was even signed — a maneuver that has functionally compressed the government’s window for preemptive action.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta has stepped into the breach. Bonta has stated that he is collecting information about how the merger could harm consumers and people working in the film and television industry, and has indicated that California could possibly challenge the Paramount–Warner Bros. merger in court with a temporary restraining order or a lawsuit.18 His concern about the integrity of the federal process is well-founded: he has stated publicly that he does not trust the federal government to conduct a fair investigation, citing the close relationship between the DOJ and the Ellison family’s ties to President Trump.18
Antitrust experts note that it is quite common for attorneys general to create a coalition to bring a case together, and that the states have built a very consistent track record of opposing deals on conventional antitrust theories.19 Such a coalition should be assembled here. The most viable state antitrust argument is straightforward: reducing five studios to four diminishes the number of buyers for creative services and suppresses competition in the labor markets for creative professionals — both of which cause cognizable antitrust harm under state and federal law.
Internationally, the United Kingdom’s Competition and Markets Authority has announced the first step toward a formal investigation into how the merger would affect British economic competition and British consumers.20 The European Commission is conducting its own review. These parallel investigations may provide the time and the documentary record necessary for state attorneys general to assemble a comprehensive challenge.
Senator Adam Schiff has stated that the merger of two of Hollywood’s biggest studios must be subject to the highest levels of scrutiny, free from White House political influence, to determine its impact on American jobs, freedom of speech, and the future of one of the nation’s greatest exports.21 That call deserves to be heeded.
VII. ConclusionThe Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger should not be approved without, at minimum, significant structural remedies — and the stronger course is outright rejection. The transaction reduces an already highly concentrated industry from five major studios to four; eliminates meaningful competition for the labor and content of writers, filmmakers, directors, and crew; and will likely produce, through financial over-leverage, a combined entity too indebted to invest in the diverse, risk-taking programming that would justify any public benefit claim.
The HSR waiting period has expired, but that procedural milestone is not the end of the inquiry — it is, at most, the beginning of a state-led enforcement effort that the facts clearly support. As the open letter from more than a thousand film and television professionals concludes: “Competition is essential for a healthy economy and a healthy democracy. So is thoughtful regulation and enforcement.”22 Regulators and legislators who take both propositions seriously should act accordingly.

FOOTNOTES
1.  The Antitrust Attorney Blog, March 7, 2026, https://www.theantitrustattorney.com/the-paramount-warner-bros-deal-what-it-signals-for-antitrust-merger-review-in-consolidating-industries/
2.  Variety, February 22, 2026, https://variety.com/2026/film/news/paramount-warner-bros-discovery-doj-antitrust-review-1236668276/
3.  Axios, March 3, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/03/03/paramount-doj-warner-bros-wbd-deal
4.  Variety, February 28, 2026, https://variety.com/2026/film/news/paramount-warner-bros-antitrust-states-1236674927/
5.  Variety, February 22, 2026 (HSR expiration and DOJ latitude), https://variety.com/2026/film/news/paramount-warner-bros-discovery-doj-antitrust-review-1236668276/
6.  The Antitrust Attorney Blog, March 7, 2026, https://www.theantitrustattorney.com/the-paramount-warner-bros-deal-what-it-signals-for-antitrust-merger-review-in-consolidating-industries/
7.  Washington Times, April 13, 2026, https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/apr/13/hollywood-voices-unequivocal-opposition-paramount-warner-merger-open/
8.  ProMarket, March 26, 2026, https://www.promarket.org/2026/03/26/the-warner-bros-discovery-bidding-war-shows-antitrust-enforcement-still-works/
9.  CNBC / Reuters, March 27, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/wbd-paramount-doj-subpoenas-antitrust-probe.html
10.  Variety, February 28, 2026 (WGA statement), https://variety.com/2026/film/news/paramount-warner-bros-antitrust-states-1236674927/
11.  Deseret News, April 13, 2026, https://www.deseret.com/entertainment/2026/04/13/paramount-warner-bros-hollywood-letter-backlash/
12.  CNBC / Reuters, March 27, 2026 (Teamsters statement), https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/wbd-paramount-doj-subpoenas-antitrust-probe.html
13.  CNBC / Reuters, March 27, 2026 (Cinema United / Michael O'Leary statement), https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/wbd-paramount-doj-subpoenas-antitrust-probe.html
14.  NBC News / IndieWire, April 13–14, 2026, https://www.nbcnews.com/business/media/hollywood-letter-paramount-warner-bros-merger-rcna331499; https://www.indiewire.com/news/breaking-news/paramount-warner-bros-merger-stars-oppose-open-letter-1235188747/
15.  NBC News, April 14, 2026 (BlocktheMerger.com open letter), https://www.nbcnews.com/business/media/hollywood-letter-paramount-warner-bros-merger-rcna331499
16.  Deadline / Joseph M. Singer, March 24, 2026, https://deadline.com/2026/03/anti-trust-regulators-reject-wbd-paramount-skydance-column-1236764465/
17.  CNBC / Reuters, March 27, 2026 (synergies / layoffs), https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/wbd-paramount-doj-subpoenas-antitrust-probe.html
18.  NPR, April 2, 2026, https://www.npr.org/2026/04/02/nx-s1-5760968/entertainment-and-california-regulators-push-back-against-warner-paramount-merger
19.  Variety, February 28, 2026 (Spencer Weber Waller, Loyola University Chicago), https://variety.com/2026/film/news/paramount-warner-bros-antitrust-states-1236674927/
20.  NBC News, April 14, 2026 (UK CMA announcement), https://www.nbcnews.com/business/media/hollywood-letter-paramount-warner-bros-merger-rcna331499
21.  Deseret News, April 13, 2026 (Senator Schiff statement), https://www.deseret.com/entertainment/2026/04/13/paramount-warner-bros-hollywood-letter-backlash/
22.  Democracy Defenders Fund Press Release, April 13, 2026 (BlocktheMerger.com open letter), https://www.democracydefendersfund.org/prs/04.13.26-pr

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The State of the Film Market: What the Numbers Tell Filmmakers

3/18/2026

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The business of getting a film made and into theaters has always required a filmmaker to wear two hats — the creative and the commercial. Understanding the financial landscape of the industry is not a peripheral concern; it is a prerequisite for making informed decisions about budgets, distribution strategy, and investor relationships. The data from recent years tells a story that is neither purely optimistic nor pessimistic, but one that demands clear-eyed attention.
The Domestic Market: Recovery With a Ceiling
The U.S./Canada box office peaked at $11.9 billion in 2018, then collapsed to $2.1 billion in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery since then has been real but incomplete. Domestic grosses reached $7.4 billion in 2022, $9.0 billion in 2023, and $8.6 billion in 2024 — a slight decline attributed in part to a release slate thinned by the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. In 2025, the market rebounded modestly to approximately $8.7 billion. That figure is meaningful progress, but it still sits roughly 24 percent below the 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark of $11.4 billion.

Ticket sales tell an even starker story. In 2002, theaters sold approximately 1.58 billion tickets domestically. By 2019, that figure had already declined to 1.23 billion. In 2024, approximately 762 million tickets were sold — 38 percent below 2019 and 52 percent below the 2002 peak. The average ticket price has risen to $11.31, which partially offsets the volume decline, but the structural erosion of moviegoing frequency is a fact filmmakers must build their projections around, not argue with.
The Global Picture: China, Recovery, and a New Normal
The global theatrical market offers a somewhat different lens. Worldwide box office was $42.2 billion in 2019. It fell to $12.1 billion in 2020, recovered to $26.0 billion in 2022, and reached $33.9 billion in 2023 — the best post-pandemic year, driven by Barbie and Oppenheimer generating genuine cultural momentum. In 2024, global box office slipped to approximately $30 billion, a 3 percent decline, reflecting the strike-affected pipeline working its way through the system.

One structural shift worth noting is China's continued volatility as a market. International box office excluding China has held relatively steady, while China's contribution has declined from its pre-pandemic highs. For independent filmmakers with international distribution ambitions, this means the calculus around foreign pre-sales and territory values has shifted considerably in the past five years.
Where the Money Goes: Digital Has Won
Perhaps the most consequential long-term shift for filmmakers is not at the theater but at home. In 2024, digital entertainment — streaming subscriptions, video on demand, and electronic sell-through — accounted for approximately 88 percent of the U.S. entertainment market by revenue. Theatrical represented 11 percent, and physical media just 1 percent.
​

This is not simply a trend; it is the established structure of the market. For filmmakers, it has direct implications for how deals are structured. Theatrical releases increasingly function as marketing events that establish a film's value for downstream licensing — streaming, VOD, and ancillary markets — rather than as primary revenue generators in their own right. A film that earns $10 million at the domestic box office may generate multiples of that across its full distribution life. Understanding this window dynamic is essential for negotiating distribution agreements and setting realistic investor expectations.
The Profitability Equation: Scale Still Dominates
The list of the most profitable films by absolute gross profit illuminates something important: scale is extraordinarily concentrated at the top. Avatar remains the most profitable film in history, with a worldwide gross now exceeding $2.92 billion (including re-releases) against a reported $425 million budget, yielding an estimated $2.5 billion in profit. Avengers: Endgame, Titanic, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Spider-Man: No Way Home round out the top tier. In 2024, Inside Out 2 entered the upper rankings with a $1.7 billion worldwide gross against a $200 million budget.
These figures are instructive less as aspirational targets and more as a reminder of the structural economics at play. The films generating the largest absolute profits are overwhelmingly produced and distributed by MPA member studios — Disney, Warner Bros., Universal, Paramount, Sony — whose marketing budgets, global distribution infrastructure, and franchise libraries create competitive advantages that are effectively unreplicable at the independent level.
The Independent Reality: Low Budgets, Rare Wins
The flip side of the blockbuster economy is documented in a more instructive table for most working filmmakers: the films that earned at least $1 million at the U.S. box office on the lowest production budgets. El Mariachi, released in 1993, was produced for $7,000 and earned over $2 million domestically. Skinamarink (2023) was made for $15,000 and earned approximately $2 million. Clerks cost $27,000; The Brothers  McMullen, $50,000.What this list demonstrates is that theatrical breakout is possible at micro-budget levels, but it is exception rather than rule, and typically requires either significant critical attention, festival positioning, or a distributor willing to invest in a platform release strategy. For most independent films, the path to profitability runs through the full distribution stack — theatrical (even limited), then digital rental, then streaming licensing — rather than through theatrical alone.
Production Volume: A Missing Data Point
One significant gap in current data concerns production volume. The MPA's THEME report tracked films entering production by budget tier through 2021, when 943 feature films entered production — a 111 percent rebound from the COVID-affected 2020 figure. Since then, the MPA has not published comparable data in the same format, and the 2023 strikes further disrupted the pipeline. Estimates suggest Hollywood produced approximately 792 films in 2022, with output meaningfully reduced in 2023 as productions were delayed. The full 2025 THEME report, expected in spring 2026, will clarify current production levels.
What This Means in Practice
For filmmakers and producers navigating this environment, several conclusions emerge from the data. Theatrical remains valuable as a positioning tool and a trigger for downstream value, but it should rarely be treated as a standalone profit center at budgets below $20–30 million without a major studio behind it. The home entertainment market — overwhelmingly digital — is where the volume of revenue now lives. Global pre-sales and co-production structures remain important tools for independent financing, but territory values have shifted and China's unpredictability has reduced its utility as a financial anchor.

Finally, the low-budget success stories — films made for under $100,000 that found audiences and earned returns — are real, but they share a common trait: each had a clear and exploitable hook, whether genre, controversy, or documentary subject matter, that made them marketable without conventional resources. That is, ultimately, a creative problem as much as a financial one.

Based on current box office data and industry research, updated March 2026
Data sources: Box Office Mojo, The Numbers/Nash Information Services, MPA THEME Report (2021), Gower Street Analytics, Comscore. Domestic figures refer to the U.S./Canada market.

To learn more about this topic, enroll in my upcoming Risky Business Webinar on March 26 and 27th. See description below.

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